Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 3.308775 3.964517 4.697609 5.575170 6.594204 7.737233 9.113281
2025-06-08 2.389656 3.230056 4.269394 5.637829 7.379261 9.507300 12.288707
2025-06-15 1.795963 2.692961 3.901464 5.623253 7.983013 11.069198 15.369144
2025-06-22 1.324639 2.184409 3.436027 5.348452 8.144045 12.018468 17.714675
2025-06-29 1.054541 1.892382 3.197880 5.316696 8.588076 13.346861 20.660187
2025-07-06 0.853940 1.658077 2.992105 5.279107 8.987137 14.616680 23.609320
2025-07-13 0.764025 1.587024 3.026783 5.610608 9.972346 16.829321 28.130350
2025-07-20 0.666620 1.479585 2.977189 5.785669 10.711939 18.714752 32.294648
2025-07-27 0.600753 1.417096 2.993316 6.068545 11.650029 20.983652 37.231678
2025-08-03 0.511867 1.287940 2.862268 6.062717 12.079042 22.441361 40.953001
2025-08-10 0.416554 1.122609 2.631367 5.832636 12.072175 23.148026 43.460438
2025-08-17 0.335695 0.970075 2.398467 5.560923 11.948074 23.624343 45.588921
2025-08-24 0.286517 0.883633 2.294631 5.542255 12.315757 25.029083 49.491789
2025-08-31 0.248564 0.816534 2.222375 5.579782 12.797588 26.682864 53.968347
2025-09-07 0.212861 0.745962 2.129056 5.556828 13.151384 28.121537 58.152827
2025-09-14 0.170412 0.643310 1.937666 5.282095 12.945181 28.462865 60.307817
2025-09-21 0.145992 0.588146 1.855679 5.249724 13.251154 29.825454 64.491417
2025-09-28 0.125106 0.537896 1.776772 5.212224 13.538821 31.168756 68.722783
2025-10-05 0.119560 0.539000 1.840183 5.539912 14.685364 34.351230 76.784307
2025-10-12 0.109372 0.520330 1.843609 5.712988 15.489376 36.875020 83.677335
2025-10-19 0.103155 0.514937 1.885404 5.992722 16.570792 40.057581 92.093834
2025-10-26 0.090132 0.478270 1.824907 5.986953 16.963649 41.788383 97.627021
2025-11-02 0.074019 0.422432 1.691988 5.759413 16.786021 42.258325 100.556168